2026 Midterms: Balance of Power｜Live
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Last updated on --.
Total Volume$2.47M
Markets5
Trading endsNov 4, 12:00
Probability over time
2026 Midterms: Balance of Power odds
The percentage shows the market’s estimated chance of that outcome — driven entirely by live trading, not set by OKX. A 76 reading means a Yes share costs 76¢. A correct Yes share returns 1xp at settlement; an incorrect one returns 0xp.
2026 Midterms: Balance of Power outcome overview
Market Favourite
Democrats Sweep70% to win
Days to Start
13 DaysNov 4, 2026
Total Volume
$2.47M↑ 187.33Kxp today
Market rules
This market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party controls the Senate and the Republican Party controls the House following the 2026 U.S. midterm election, and No otherwise.
Senate control is determined by a majority of voting seats. If no party has a majority, control belongs to the party holding half of the voting seats and the Vice Presidency; if still ambiguous, it belongs to the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the incoming Congress.
House control is determined by a majority of voting seats. If no party has a majority, control belongs to the party of the first elected Speaker of the incoming Congress.
For the Senate, the count includes all regular and special elections determining representation in the incoming 120th Congress that, as of October 31, 2026, are scheduled for November 2026. A Senate vacancy with no November election scheduled as of that date is attributed to the most recent holder's party. For the House, the count includes all 2026 midterm elections electing voting members of the incoming 120th Congress.
A contested seat is attributed to the party under which the winning member was elected; a later party change or vacancy before Congress is organized does not change that attribution. A Senate seat not contested in this election is attributed to the party holding it on election day; a later party change or vacancy does not change that attribution.
An independent member counts for a party only after formally caucusing with it or publicly announcing an intention to do so. If the decision is unknown on election day, settlement may remain pending until the member's announcement or January 4, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Without an announcement by that deadline, the member counts toward no party.
The Other outcome applies only if the final combined result is none of Democratic Senate/Democratic House, Democratic Senate/Republican House, Republican Senate/Democratic House, or Republican Senate/Republican House.
Resolution is based on official information from the relevant state election authorities and the United States Congress, together with a consensus of credible reporting where necessary.
The five outcomes in this Event are mutually exclusive, and exactly one resolves Yes.
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FAQ
Click any outcome row and the trading panel syncs automatically. Select Yes (think it’ll happen) or No (think it won’t happen), enter your amount, and tap place order. You’ll need a free OKX account. Each correct Yes share pays 70¢ at settlement. Open positions remain active until the market closes.
Yes — you can sell your shares at any time before trading closes on Nov 4, 2026. The sale price reflects the market at that moment and may be higher or lower than what you paid. Once trading closes, positions settle at resolution.
Disclaimer
No purchase or payment necessary. This campaign is a free points activity with no funds at risk. Not an offer/solicitation to buy, sell or hold digital assets, which are subject to volatility. Not all products are offered in all regions. T&Cs apply.