Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?｜Live
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Total Volume$178.87K
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Trading endsNov 4, 12:59
Probability over time
Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections? odds
The percentage shows the market’s estimated chance of that outcome — driven entirely by live trading, not set by OKX. A 62 reading means a Yes share costs 62¢. A correct Yes share returns 1xp at settlement; an incorrect one returns 0xp.
Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections? outcome overview
Market Favourite
Democratic Senate control62% to win
Days to Start
13 DaysNov 4, 2026
Total Volume
$178.87K↑ 6.47Kxp today
Market rules
This binary market asks whether the Democratic Party will control the U.S. Senate following the 2026 midterm election. It resolves Yes only if the Democratic Party is determined to control the chamber under the settlement rules; otherwise it resolves No. A voting-seat majority controls the Senate; if no party has a majority, the Vice Presidency and, if still necessary, the first selected President Pro Tempore determine control.
This event predicts which party will control the United States Senate following the 2026 U.S. midterm election. The determination includes qualifying regular elections, special elections, and subsequent runoffs affecting representation in the incoming 120th Congress. The active outcomes are the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.
Exactly one of the two active party markets resolves Yes.
A party controls the Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority, control belongs to the party that holds half of the voting seats and the Vice Presidency. If control remains ambiguous, it is assigned to the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the incoming Congress.
The count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the incoming 120th Congress and that, as of October 31, 2026, are scheduled for November 2026. A runoff arising from a qualifying election determines the relevant seat even if the runoff occurs after November 2026.
A vacant seat for which no election or special election is scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 is attributed to the party of the most recent member to hold that seat.
A contested seat is attributed to the party under which the winning member was elected. A member-elect changing party or vacating the seat before Congress is formally organized does not change that attribution. A seat not contested in the specified election is attributed to the party holding it on election day, and a later party change or vacancy does not change that attribution.
A senator elected as an independent is included in a party's count only if the senator formally caucuses with that party or, for a newly elected senator, publicly announces an intention to do so. If the caucus decision is unknown on election day, settlement may remain pending until the earlier of the senator's announcement or January 4, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. If no announcement is made by that deadline, the senator is not counted toward any party.
Resolution is based on official information from the relevant state election authorities and the United States Congress, together with a consensus of credible reporting where necessary.
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FAQ
Click any outcome row and the trading panel syncs automatically. Select Yes (think it’ll happen) or No (think it won’t happen), enter your amount, and tap place order. You’ll need a free OKX account. Each correct Yes share pays 62¢ at settlement. Open positions remain active until the market closes.
Yes — you can sell your shares at any time before trading closes on Nov 4, 2026. The sale price reflects the market at that moment and may be higher or lower than what you paid. Once trading closes, positions settle at resolution.
Disclaimer
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