Which party will control the House after the 2026 midterm elections?｜Live
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Total Volume$409.32K
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Trading endsNov 4, 12:59
Probability over time
Which party will control the House after the 2026 midterm elections? odds
The percentage shows the market’s estimated chance of that outcome — driven entirely by live trading, not set by OKX. A 93 reading means a Yes share costs 93¢. A correct Yes share returns 1xp at settlement; an incorrect one returns 0xp.
Which party will control the House after the 2026 midterm elections? outcome overview
Market Favourite
Democratic House control93% to win
Days to Start
13 DaysNov 4, 2026
Total Volume
$409.32K↑ 38.4Kxp today
Market rules
This binary market asks whether the Democratic Party will control the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm election. It resolves Yes only if the Democratic Party is determined to control the chamber under the settlement rules; otherwise it resolves No. If no party holds a majority of voting seats, control is determined by the party of the first elected Speaker of the incoming Congress.
This event predicts which party will control the United States House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. midterm election. Control is determined from the voting seats of the incoming 120th Congress, including any qualifying runoff results. The active outcomes are the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.
Exactly one of the two active party markets resolves Yes.
A party controls the House if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority, control is assigned to the party of the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress convening after the 2026 midterm election.
The count includes all 2026 U.S. midterm House elections that elect voting members and determine representation in the incoming 120th Congress. If a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result determines the attribution of that seat.
Each seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. A member-elect changing party affiliation or vacating the seat between election day and the formal organization of Congress does not change that attribution.
A member elected as an independent is included in a party's count only if the member formally caucuses with that party or, for a newly elected member, publicly announces an intention to do so. If the caucus decision is unknown on election day, settlement may remain pending until the earlier of the member's announcement or January 4, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. If no announcement is made by that deadline, the member is not counted toward any party.
Resolution is based on official information from the relevant state election authorities and the United States Congress, together with a consensus of credible reporting where necessary.
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FAQ
Click any outcome row and the trading panel syncs automatically. Select Yes (think it’ll happen) or No (think it won’t happen), enter your amount, and tap place order. You’ll need a free OKX account. Each correct Yes share pays 93¢ at settlement. Open positions remain active until the market closes.
Yes — you can sell your shares at any time before trading closes on Nov 4, 2026. The sale price reflects the market at that moment and may be higher or lower than what you paid. Once trading closes, positions settle at resolution.
Disclaimer
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