美国中期选举：哪个党将控制参议院？｜进行中
进行中
最后更新于 --
总交易量$17.89万
选项2
交易截止11月4日 12:59
概率走势
美国中期选举：哪个党将控制参议院？赔率
这个数字代表市场对该结果的隐含概率，完全由所有交易者的买卖行为决定，欧易不参与定价。62 意味着买一份「是」只需 62¢；结算时猜对可获 1xp，猜错则获得 0xp。
美国中期选举：哪个党将控制参议院？ 结果总览
市场热门
民主党控制参议院？62% 胜率
距开赛
13 天2026年11月4日
总交易量
$17.89万今日 ↑ 6,472.39xp
规则说明
This binary market asks whether the Republican Party will control the U.S. Senate following the 2026 midterm election. It resolves Yes only if the Republican Party is determined to control the chamber under the settlement rules; otherwise it resolves No. A voting-seat majority controls the Senate; if no party has a majority, the Vice Presidency and, if still necessary, the first selected President Pro Tempore determine control.
This event predicts which party will control the United States Senate following the 2026 U.S. midterm election. The determination includes qualifying regular elections, special elections, and subsequent runoffs affecting representation in the incoming 120th Congress. The active outcomes are the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.
Exactly one of the two active party markets resolves Yes.
A party controls the Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber's voting seats. If no party wins a majority, control belongs to the party that holds half of the voting seats and the Vice Presidency. If control remains ambiguous, it is assigned to the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the incoming Congress.
The count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the incoming 120th Congress and that, as of October 31, 2026, are scheduled for November 2026. A runoff arising from a qualifying election determines the relevant seat even if the runoff occurs after November 2026.
A vacant seat for which no election or special election is scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 is attributed to the party of the most recent member to hold that seat.
A contested seat is attributed to the party under which the winning member was elected. A member-elect changing party or vacating the seat before Congress is formally organized does not change that attribution. A seat not contested in the specified election is attributed to the party holding it on election day, and a later party change or vacancy does not change that attribution.
A senator elected as an independent is included in a party's count only if the senator formally caucuses with that party or, for a newly elected senator, publicly announces an intention to do so. If the caucus decision is unknown on election day, settlement may remain pending until the earlier of the senator's announcement or January 4, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. If no announcement is made by that deadline, the senator is not counted toward any party.
Resolution is based on official information from the relevant state election authorities and the United States Congress, together with a consensus of credible reporting where necessary.
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常见问题
点击任意结果行，交易面板将自动同步。选择"是" (预测会发生) 或"否" (预测不会发生)，输入金额，点击"下单"。需要一个免费的欧易账号。结算时，每份正确的"是"份额可获得 62¢。持仓在市场收盘前持续有效。
可以。在 2026年11月4日 交易截止前，您随时可以在二级市场卖出份额，平仓价格以当时市场为准，可能高于或低于买入价。交易截止后只能等待结算。
免责声明
无需购买或付款。本活动为免费积分活动，并不涉及任何资金风险。本活动不构成买入、卖出或持有数字资产的要约或招揽，数字资产价格可能受剧烈波动影响。并非所有产品均于所有地区提供。相关条款及细则适用。
无需购买或付款。本活动为免费积分活动，并不涉及任何资金风险。本活动不构成买入、卖出或持有数字资产的要约或招揽，数字资产价格可能受剧烈波动影响。并非所有产品均于所有地区提供。相关条款及细则适用。
无需购买或付款。本活动为免费积分活动，并不涉及任何资金风险。本活动不构成买入、卖出或持有数字资产的要约或招揽，数字资产价格可能受剧烈波动影响。并非所有产品均于所有地区提供。相关条款及细则适用。